U.S. LNG Export Update: 3BCF/Day Rise in Exports Expected through 2027, 10th Export Terminal Comes Online, and Import Prices Very High in Europe and Asia Due to Iran War

     U.S. LNG exports are set to rise by about 2BCF/day through 2027. Current export capacity is 18.3 BCF/day, with actual exports at about 17 BCF/day. That is nearly a 93% utilization rate. Utilization rates picked up and are expected to remain high to offset losses, especially from Qatar, due to the Iran war. The graph below shows total exports and imports from the U.S. via pipeline and LNG. Note that the U.S. imports about 0.1 BCF/day of LNG to New England for winter inventory and is expected to continue that rate or less through 2027. These imports only exist because much, much cheaper gas that could be pipelined from Northeastern PA is not available due to opposition to pipelines, mainly from the state of New York. Pipeline gas exports to Mexico continue to increase incrementally, but the biggest rise in exports is mainly LNG exports. Some of the U.S. natural gas pipelined to Mexico is expected to be liquefied and exported from Mexico as LNG. Two terminals are expected to come online, one in 2026 and one in 2027, with a combined export capacity of 0.6 BCF/day. The U.S. also imports about 8.7 BCF/day from Canada via pipeline. This is expected to drop to 8BCF/day as Canada diverts some production to feed 2.1 BCF/day of new LNG exports from its West Coast. The Appalachian region is expected to replace some of that gas as its production is expected to grow by about 1 BCF/day or more through 2027.

     Qatari LNG exports represent:

“….10 Bcf/d, or 20% of global supply. Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after a March 18 attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains. QatarEnergy estimates repairs on the damaged trains could take up to five years.”

     Since the advent of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more U.S. LNG exports have been diverted from Asia to Europe, as the following graph shows. In 2025, exports to Europe reached a record high of 10.3 BCF/day.

     EIA also recently reported:

“On April 22, 2026, Golden Pass LNG—the 9th liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in the United States—shipped its first cargo from Train 1, according to the project developer. The shipment left port 23 days after achieving first LNG production in March 2026. The terminal began shipping as geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz have affected over 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or approximately 20%, of global supply. Golden Pass LNG is the only new U.S. LNG export terminal currently expected to begin LNG shipments in 2026.”

     LNG import prices have been very high in Asia and Europe due to the Iran War. The following graph shows that before the war, LNG import prices in both Europe and Japan were a little over three times the average Henry Hub price. Those prices peaked in late March at about seven times Henry Hub prices and are now back at about five times Henry Hub prices.

   

References:

 

The 10th U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal, Golden Pass, ships first cargo. Energy Information Administration. April 23, 2026. The 10th U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal, Golden Pass, ships first cargo - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up. Energy Information Administration. April 16, 2026. U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Supplement: For week ending April 22, 2026: Release Date: April 23, 2026. Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)