Update on Carbon Utilization: Economics, Projects, Challenges, and Forecasts

 

     The utilization of captured carbon is an important component of decarbonization. Currently, the vast majority of utilized captured CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery. That is about to change according to forecasts. Due to tech advancements and generous incentives from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the IRA the U.S. is on the verge of increasing the utilization of captured CO2. The DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management developed a grant program in 2022, their Carbon Utilization Program, that “is designed to establish a grant program for state and local governments to procure and use products derived from captured carbon oxides.” Initial funding was $310 million. Currently, there are many start-ups focused on developing economic solutions to carbon capture, removal, utilization, and storage. Some of these may be able to take advantage of such grants to further develop those solutions.

     The graph below shows the different carbon utilization possibilities. Aquaculture can utilize carbon in biomass to yield algae through dewatering, to yield biochar, biogas/syngas, or biocrude through conversion, or to yield lipids, proteins, or carbohydrates through fractionation. Through carbonization, carbon can be converted to inorganic materials which can yield biocarbonates, carbonate aggregates, carbon cements, and other inorganic materials and chemicals. Carbon can be converted into fuels and organic chemicals via two methods: biotic synthesis and abiotic synthesis. Biotic synthesis can yield neat fuels and blendstocks, commodity, specialty, and fine chemicals, and emerging biochemicals. Abiotic synthesis can yield comm oddity, specialty, and fine chemicals through carbon insertion. Through carbon coupling abiotic synthesis can yield C2 basic chemicals, graphite, and carbon. Through C1 reforming abiotic synthesis can yield CO, syngas, and C1 basic chemicals. Captured carbon can also be used as a working fluid to provide services, mainly for improved resource recovery. Crude oil, natural gas, coalbed methane, groundwater, wastewater, and geothermal energy can all utilize CO2 as a working fluid to improve recoveries.

 

 

Source: US DOE/NETL

     IDTechEx forecasts that the percentage of captured carbon used for enhanced oil recovery will drop from the current 90+% to about 50% by 2044. That does not mean that enhanced oil recovery won’t increase, just that it will be less of the total share of captured carbon utilized. They also forecast that CO2 conversion to fuels and to building materials, in roughly equal measure will dominate the new uses for captured carbon as the graph below shows. Conversion to chemicals and biological products will make up a much smaller share.

 

      IDTechEx predicts that by 2044, utilization of waste CO2 will reach 800 Mt, creating over 3,000 Mt of useful products. Of course, CO2 converted to fuels and some chemicals and other products will be burned or consumed, re-releasing the captured CO2 to the atmosphere, but without any new CO2 being generated. Other products like CO2-imbued building materials and biochar will be sequestered for a long time. CO2 sequestration into deep saline reservoirs offers the longest-term storage. Government requirements, mandates, new regulatory rules, and incentives are expected to help fuels and building materials to utilize more captured CO2. They also note that CO2 utilization for crop enhancement in greenhouses is expected to grow as new CO2 pipelines are constructed and filled. The graph below shows emerging applications for the utilization of captured CO2. They also note that some chemicals such as CO2-derived polycarbonates are already produced commercially but they do not require very much CO2 to make, and that chemicals that require non-reductive pathways are the most promising due to a smaller energy demand.

 

     A paper published in November 2019 in Nature addressed the technological and economic prospects of CO2 utilization and removal. The authors also pointed out some co-benefits od certain utilization pathways. One example is land-based CO2 sequestration into products like biochar can increase agricultural yields and soil health. Another example is that the use of carbon in construction materials can reduce the amounts of other materials required as well as offering a fairly permanent storage solution. The paper provides ten potential utilization pathways that can be scaled up to utilize over 0.5 gigatons of CO2 annually each. The ten pathways are shown in the graphic below of stocks and net flows of CO2 in the environment and in the table below:

 

CO2 flows from the different types of utilization and removal are shown below.

 

The last two graphs from the paper address economics and breakeven costs for 2019. Since then, some costs likely have risen due to inflation and higher borrowing costs but that is likely to have been more than offset by new subsidies and incentives as well as some technological improvements. The authors mention a few possible tech improvements that could decrease costs: “The emissions-reduction potentials of the three cycling pathways would be facilitated by declines in the costs of CO2 capture. New sorbents could reduce the cost of energy-intensive separation of CO2 from flue gases and industrial streams.” They emphasize that new materials and catalysts can be employed to decrease the costs of CO2 utilization.

 

     A summary for a CO2 utilization market report by Research and Markets describes the scope of the report: “Multiple product opportunity areas are examined including synthetic hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks, polycarbonates, polyols, industrial gases, enhanced oil recovery, yield boosting technologies, carbon nanomaterials, and sustainable building products.” The report also addresses regional outlooks for carbon utilization, market challenges, drivers, and industry players.

     I wrote about carbon utilization in my 2022 book: Natural Gas and Decarbonization. There I focused on some current projects as well as the DOE-NETL’s utilization projects, about three-quarters of which were focused on conversion to fuels and chemicals. Only five, or one-eight of the projects were focused on mineral carbonization to produce building products like CO2-imbued concrete and other composite construction materials. I also wrote about the possibility of developing a carbon nanotube and fibers industry to replace the use of metals, which could make products lighter and more durable. The idea was developed by Rice University carbon materials expert Matteo Pasquali. Along with cost, the big hurdle is developing manufacturing capacity for scale-up that can compete with metals manufacturing. Replacing metals with carbon nanomaterials can reduce carbon emissions significantly if such an industry is developed. This is because sources of carbon such as hydrocarbons in the earth are much more concentrated than metal ores. While conversion to chemicals won’t utilize as much carbon as conversion to fuels, there are many chemicals into which CO2 can be converted. I wrote about Lanza Tech’s biological conversion of algae biomass into sustainable jet fuel and their conversion of ethanol into polyester.

     Today, I read about new research to convert CO2 and water into acetylene gas (C2H2), which has many uses including in welding, industrial cutting, metal hardening, heat treatments, and other industrial processes. The idea is to use captured CO2 and water as feedstock rather than fossil fuels. The process requires the use of high-temperature molten salts. The images below show some of the details:

   

 

     Another major obstacle to the cost-effective conversion of CO2 into useful products via electrochemical conversion is the breakdown of catalysts under standard operating conditions. Researchers at McMaster University recently published a paper in Nature that used electron microscopy to see within the conversion process to determine how the catalysts break down and to inform strategies that could extend the operational lifetimes of these catalysts, particularly palladium-based catalysts. Just seeing the process at nanoscale is a key development for future improvement. An understanding of catalyst degradation can lead to increasing the stability and operational lifetime of the catalysts.

 

 

References:

Researchers reveal elusive bottleneck holding back global effort to convert carbon dioxide waste into usable products. Science X staff. Phys.org. February 2024. Researchers reveal elusive bottleneck holding back global effort to convert carbon dioxide waste into usable products (phys.org)

Impact of palladium/palladium hydride conversion on electrochemical CO2 reduction via in-situ transmission electron microscopy and diffraction. Ahmed M. Abdellah, Fatma Ismail, Oliver W. Siig, Jie Yang, Carmen M. Andrei, Liza-Anastasia DiCecco, Amirhossein Rakhsha, Kholoud E. Salem, Kathryn Grandfield, Nabil Bassim, Robert Black, Georg Kastlunger, Leyla Soleymani & Drew Higgins. Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 938. January 31, 2024. Impact of palladium/palladium hydride conversion on electrochemical CO2 reduction via in-situ transmission electron microscopy and diffraction | Nature Communications

Carbon Utilization Program. U.S. Dept. of Energy. Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Carbon Utilization Program | Department of Energy

About Carbon Utilization. U.S. Dept. of Energy. National Energy Technology Laboratory. About Carbon Utilization | netl.doe.gov

Utilization of Captured CO2 to Reach 800 Mt by 2044, Finds IDTechEx. IDTechEx. January 23, 2024. Utilization of Captured CO2 to Reach 800 Mt by 2044, Finds IDTechEx (prnewswire.com)

Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2024-2044: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players. Eve Pope. IDTechex. January 2024. Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2024-2044: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players: IDTechEx

Carbon Capture, Utilization & Storage Technologies Market Outlook 2024 : Trends, Challenges and Key Suppliers Analysis By 2031. Fashion Trend Segment. LinkedIn. March 8, 2024. (21) Carbon Capture, Utilization & Storage Technologies Market Outlook 2024 : Trends, Challenges and Key Suppliers Analysis By 2031 | LinkedIn Report is by 360 Research Reports with link below.   https://www.360researchreports.com/enquiry/request-sample/20311849

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Utilization Global Market Report 2024-2045: Emerging Concepts Around Mineralization Pathways for Carbon Removal. PR Newswire. January 25, 2024. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Utilization Global Market Report 2024-2045: Emerging Concepts Around Mineralization Pathways for Carbon Removal (yahoo.com)

Discover 20 Startups advancing Carbon Capture Utilization & Storage (2024). Startus Insights. 20 Startups advancing Carbon Capture Utilization & Storage (2024) (startus-insights.com)

The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal. Cameron Hepburn, Ella Adlen, John Beddington, Emily A. Carter, Sabine Fuss, Niall Mac Dowell, Jan C. Minx, Pete Smith & Charlotte K. Williams. Nature volume 575, pages87–97 (2019). The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal | Nature

Natural Gas and Decarbonization: Key Component and Enabler of the Lower Carbon, Reasonable Cost Energy Systems of the Future: Strategies for the 2020s and Beyond. Kent C. Stewart. Amazon Publishing 2022.

Advancing towards sustainability: Turning carbon dioxide and water into acetylene. Science X Staff. Phys.org. March 27, 2024. Advancing towards sustainability: Turning carbon dioxide and water into acetylene (msn.com)