Wikipedia via the
WHO and other researchers like Kirk R. Smith, defines environmental risk
transition as “the process by which traditional communities with associated
environmental health issues become more economically developed and experience
new health issues. In traditional or economically undeveloped regions, humans
often suffer and die from infectious diseases or of malnutrition due to poor
food, water, and air quality. As economic development occurs, these
environmental issues are reduced or solved, and others begin to arise. There is
a shift in the character of these environmental changes, and as a result, a
shift in causes of death and disease.”
Risk Transition Frameworks
There are several
risk transition frameworks. The earliest to be used is the demographic
transition which was used in the 1940’s. The epidemiological transition
framework was utilized beginning in 1970. According to Wikipedia: “In 1990,
environmental health researcher Kirk R. Smith at the University of California,
Berkeley proposed the "risk transition" framework in relation to the
established demographic and epidemiological transition frameworks. This theory
was based on the concept that there must be a shift in risk factors leading up
to a shift in causes of death and disease. In efforts to prevent, rather than
respond to diseases, the risk transition was further studied and quantified.
Figure 1 shows the relationship between risk, epidemiological, and demographic
transition, in which risk factors change to affect patterns of disease and
health, which in turn affects the demographic. However, a shift in population
also impacts the risk factors, and so these three frameworks all show
significant impact on one another.”
Source of above graphs: Wikipedia
I first came
across the idea of environmental protection as a higher-order public good when
I read Nordhaus and Shellenberger’s 2007 book Breakthrough in the early
2010s. There, they presented environmental protection as a higher-level need
on Maslow’s pyramid or hierarchy of needs. Survival-level needs lower on the
pyramid are prioritized by people with very little discretionary cash. As we
have seen, clean energy choices are more available to those with discretionary
cash. Things like tax credits for things like rooftop solar and EVs that can be
redeemed at tax time are taken advantage of by those with the financial means
to do so. Thus, those with wealth have been able to take advantage of most of
the clean energy incentives for citizens. That means it was and is a benefit
that favors the wealthy much more than the poor. However, some of the newer
incentives such as those for new and used EVs can be applied immediately to
downpayments which makes those incentives more available to those of lesser
economic means.
Wealth is an
enabler of environmental protection. When our lower needs are met, we can approach
higher orders of utilitarian goods such as environmental protection. Environmental
protection is also viewed by many as a duty. One might fulfill that duty by
being optimally educated, and understanding the issues and the science behind them.
Another way
environmental risk transition has been described is as follows:
• This term
characterizes changes in environmental risks that happen as a consequence of
economic development in the less developed regions of the world.
• Before
transition occurs: poor food, air, and water quality
The environmental risk transition precedes the epidemiologic and demographic transitions. This means that environmental risk precedes epidemiologic and demographic risks since it is much higher in the form of the more dangerous traditional risks vs. modern risks. Traditional risks are more oriented to survival than modern risks. The graphs show a trend of traditional risks transitioning downward while modern risks begin to rise. The areas of the graphs where the two risk types converge are known as risk overlap. This is where risks transition into new forms: risk genesis. This is also where risks can be transferred when attempts to control one type of risk can increase risks of other types. This is known as risk transfer. Here, risk synergism can also occur where one type of risk changes sensitivity to other risks. The graphs below are form a power point presentation I found at a Health Dept. I work for. I am not sure of the origin.
Wealth helps
people to better mitigate natural environmental hazards such as contagious
infections and parasites, dust, dampness, woodsmoke, pollen, and other airborne
hazards, injuries from falls, fires, and animals, and heat, cold, rain, snow,
wind, natural disasters, and other adverse conditions. Once these natural hazards
are reduced those societies can focus more on higher-order public goods such as
environmental protection from anthropogenic hazards like pollution from power
plants and factories, greenhouse gas emissions, sanitation, remediation of
contamination, and better prevention and reduction of air, water, and soil
pollution.
Environmental Risk Transition Theory and Urban Health
Inequities
A study published
in Social Science and Medicine in May 2021 titled Adapting the environmental
risk transition theory for urban health inequities: An observational study
examining complex environmental riskscapes in seven neighborhoods in Global
North cities sought to “understand how environmental injustice, urban
renewal and green gentrification could inform the understanding of
epidemiologic risk transitions.” The graph below summarizes changing
environmental health exposures among affected urban populations.
Much of the study’s
data was provided through interviews with affected residents, which is valid
but such methods can be strongly biased due to the interviewees feeling cheated
by their exposures:
“Respondents reported renewed, complexified and
overlapping exposures leading to poor mental and physical health and to new
patterns of health inequity. Our findings point to the need for theories of
environmental and epidemiologic risk transitions to incorporate analysis of
trends 1) on a city-scale, acknowledging that segregation and patterns of
environmental injustice have created unequal conditions within cities and 2)
over a shorter and more recent time period, taking into account worsening
patterns of social inequity in cities.”
The paper
makes a recommendation to zoom in with such studies to smaller and more specific
populations over shorter time periods. The authors suggest that environmental risk
theory and epidemiological risk theory miss some of the important aspects of
environmental health, in particular the higher environmental exposures of some
populations. I do object to the term environmental racism. While there
was no doubt such activity in the past, especially in regard to environmental
justice communities being over exposed to certain risks and pollutants, I think
there is very little evidence of that happening in modern times. I still think
nearly all of these environmental justice communities are legacy communities,
exposed due to past actions that have been largely corrected. There may be a
few cases here and there, but it is mostly not an issue these days.
“Our results have important implications for
epidemiologic theory and methods. We find that studying epidemiologic risk
transitions on a finer geographical scale and over shorter timeframes than
traditional theories linking risk transitions to larger-scale development
illuminates important nuances to identifying risks that contribute to
socio-spatial health inequity in cities. Theories of epidemiologic transition
have described the evolution of causes of morbidity and mortality as
populations move through phases of development, often emphasizing the
contribution of riskscapes in urban settings as exposures are modified via
urbanization. However, the epidemiologic and environmental risk transition
frameworks fail to identify more finite patterns resulting from exposure to
persistent, transitional, new, and emerging environmental risks which are
inequitably distributed within cities inequalities due to the ongoing impact of
environmental racism (Friel et al., 2011). Failing to account for the resulting
overlapping and synergistic risk factors, as often happens using a traditional
epidemiologic approach, may lead to an underestimation of a population's true
burden of exposure and to the inability of cities to address historic and new
health injustices.”
Environmental
Kusnets Curves
In the 1950s and 1960s economist Simon Kusnets developed a hypothesis that stated that “as an economy develops, market forces first increase and then decrease economic inequality.” The original Kusnets Curve shown below, developed around 1960, was concerned with inequity and increasing wealth. It has been strongly criticized and many say invalidated due to the fact that inequality has increased in many societies since 1960 even though it had dropped through the first half of the 20th century. However, Kusnets curves such as the environmental Kusnets curves that show pollution or environmental impact vs. wealth are still considered by many to be valid models.
According to Majeti
Narasimha Vara Prasad in the 2024 book, Bioremediation and Bioeconomy:
“The
Environmental Kuznets curve suggests that economic development initially causes
deterioration in the environment. Later due to economic growth, society begins
to improve the relationship with the environment, and environmental degradation
reduces. Thus, the economic growth is good for the environment. Nevertheless,
critics are of the view that there is no guarantee that the economic growth
will lead to an improved environment—in fact, the opposite is often the case.
At the least, it requires a very targeted policy and attitudes to make sure
that economic growth is compatible with an improving environment.”
Environmental
Kusnets curves seem to be generally valid models for some pollutants, some ecological
impacts, carbon footprints, and waste products such as sewage. Decoupling of these
things from economic growth is confirmed, which is part of the curve trajectory
pattern. We are close to peak emissions, peak pollution, and peak other waste
products. Wealth is a huge factor in these successes. So too is technological improvement,
which also tracks well with wealth.
A January 2024
paper in Nature: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications by Qiang Wang,
Xiaowei Wang, Rongrong Li and Xueting Jiang, titled Reinvestigating the
environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of carbon emissions and ecological footprint
in 147 countries: a matter of trade protectionism, aimed to validate the EKC
hypothesis, with success when the variables of economic growth, environmental
degradation/improvement, and trade protectionism are compared statistically and
graphically.
From the study’s
conclusion:
“This study conducted a comprehensive investigation
into the intricate relationship between economic growth, trade protectionism,
and environmental indicators across 147 countries, segmented into four income
groups. The utilization of the Pedroni cointegration test further validated the
existence of stable long-term correlations between carbon emissions, ecological
footprint, and other variables, establishing the groundwork for nuanced
regression analyses. Notably, the study pioneered the exploration of threshold
effects, unveiling non-linear relationships between trade, economic growth, and
environmental outcomes across income groups. The elucidation of threshold
models revealed intriguing insights, showcasing varying impacts of trade on
economic growth, carbon emissions, and ecological footprints. Particularly
noteworthy were the distinct thresholds identified across income groups,
delineating changes in the relationships between trade, economic growth, and
environmental impacts. These findings underscored the nuanced nature of
economic development’s impact on environmental degradation, supporting theories
such as the EKC within specific income brackets while uncovering divergences in
others.”
Environmental Risk Assessment, Risk Management, Risk
Perception, Risk Education and Risk Awareness
The nexus of humans
and risk is multifaceted and sometimes counterintuitive. There is often a
mismatch between real risk and perceived risk. Both human psychology and neurobiology
are at play in our interfacing with risk. Danger invites fight-flight-freeze
reactions at the amygdala level in our pre-logic emotional circuit. The
mismatch is known as the risk gap (between real and perceived risk).
Risk assessment is important as a necessary early step that precedes and supports
risk management. There are many factors that influence human risk perception
including media, media trends, news events, past events, and the different types
of risks. Some risks are misperceived due simply to lack of knowledge about
them. In these cases, the risk gap is simply a knowledge gap. A recent study
about PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances), also known as forever
chemicals, found that 76% of people surveyed by Texas Water Resources Institute
knew nothing about PFAS chemicals. 41.5% of respondents had not heard of them
and 31.6% of respondents had heard of them but were unaware of the risks. 11.5%
of respondents were aware of PFAS contamination. 97.4% of respondents did not
believe their own drinking water had been affected. For several years now I
have been hearing about PFAS chemicals as emerging contaminants in
environmental circles. The results of the survey are an example of risk
awareness, in this case lack of awareness about the risks, which possibly
include cancer and reproductive problems. Research has confirmed that many
people have been exposed to PFAS chemicals. Risk education can help to increase
risk awareness. Risk misperceptions can lead to focusing resources on the wrong
variables, ones that don’t best help to solve problems.
References:
Environmental
Risk Transition. Wikipedia. Environmental risk transition -
Wikipedia
Adapting
the environmental risk transition theory for urban health inequities: An
observational study examining complex environmental riskscapes in seven
neighborhoods in Global North cities. Helen V.S. Cole, Isabelle Anguelovski,
James J.T. Connolly, Melissa García-Lamarca, Carmen Perez-del-Pulgar, Galia
Shokry, and Triguero-Mas. Social Science & Medicine. Volume 277, May 2021,
113907. Adapting the environmental risk
transition theory for urban health inequities: An observational study examining
complex environmental riskscapes in seven neighborhoods in Global North cities
- ScienceDirect
Bioremediation
and Bioeconomy: A Circular Economy Approach. Book • Second Edition • 2023. Bioremediation and Bioeconomy |
ScienceDirect
Reinvestigating
the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of carbon emissions and ecological
footprint in 147 countries: a matter of trade protectionism. Qiang Wang,
Xiaowei Wang, Rongrong Li & Xueting Jiang. Humanities and Social Sciences
Communications volume 11, Article number: 160 (2024) January 24, 2024. Reinvestigating the environmental
Kuznets curve (EKC) of carbon emissions and ecological footprint in 147
countries: a matter of trade protectionism | Humanities and Social Sciences
Communications (nature.com)
The
Environmental Risk Transition. Power Point Presentation. (unknown origin)
Kusnets
curve. Wikipedia. Kuznets curve - Wikipedia
Researchers
raise concerns after surveying Americans about common risks: ‘A significant
knowledge gap’. Laurelle Stelle. The Cool Down. March 17, 2024. Researchers raise concerns after
surveying Americans about common risks: ‘A significant knowledge gap’ (msn.com)
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