While it is no
doubt true that electrification leads to less carbon emissions and less pollution
there are also many caveats and many reasons that some versions of natural gas-powered
appliances are ideal for relatively low emissions, flexibility, and cost. New
98+% efficiency low-cost natural gas condensing furnaces, natural gas heat
pumps, and efficient natural gas or LP gas powered water heaters are examples
of newer natural gas appliances with significant emissions improvements. The
American Gas Association’s Adam Kay notes: “With the installation of
condensing natural gas space and water heaters, natural gas homes can reach 11%
lower emissions this year compared to the use of many air-source heat pumps.
The use of natural gas heat pumps can further lower emissions by 22% compared
to the cold climate heat pump configuration.” Thus, there are natural gas
solutions to home heating and water heating that are emissions competitive with
heat pumps. He also notes that the U.S. natural gas distribution system is 92%
efficient at energy delivery compared to electricity at 38%. This is why, he
says, homes with natural gas space and water heating and clothes drying can be
22% less carbon intensive than all electric homes. Of course, that all depends
on the energy sources for electricity generation. The AGA also touts efficiency
improvements, hydrogen blending, and renewable natural gas as innovations that
can decrease emissions intensity in the future. Emissions from natural gas
distribution systems in the U.S. have declined by 69% since 1990, mostly due to
replacing old leaky lines with modern materials. These replacements, mostly in
big cities, are costly and slow but gas utilities spend about $32 billion per
year on safety enhancements including replacing lines.
New York state
famously banned fracking more than a decade ago and when Cuomo was governor the
state blocked pipelines from bringing natural gas through the state and new
ones into the state. Cuomo also ordered Con Edison to hook up new natural gas
customers when they said they could not guarantee adequate line pressure to
serve customers in high demand situations. Now the state under Governor Huchol plans
to ban natural gas hookups in new buildings. This is expected to be a statewide
ban with few exceptions. The exceptions will include reliability and backup
power security for key facilities like hospitals. Apparently, they are still studying
reliability, as forced electrification in places where the power grid is
inadequate can cause serious reliability issues. The DOE notes that 61 percent
of American households used natural gas for either space heating, water heating
or cooking in 2020, the most recent year for which data is available. In the
Northeast, 67 percent of homes use gas, including 52 percent of households in
New York State. Is it reasonable to take that choice away without due
consideration of added costs and reduced reliability? A similar ban in New York
City enacted in 2021 is set to take effect in December. Many environmentalist
groups and coalitions lobbied hard for these bans. The “war” on fracking and
natural gas is real in New York and to be fair there is a probably a lot of
support in the state for such bans. But is it fair? Is it feasible? Is it
sensible? Is electrification really the best way to lower carbon emissions? Does
it compromise grid reliability?
The recent
hubbub about natural gas stoves being detrimental and causing asthma in children
seemed to be an activists’ campaign rather than any real fact-finding. Most
studies have concluded that natural gas stoves are not harmful. Yes, natural
gas combustion has emissions including nitrogen oxides as do the foods that we
cook with either gas or electricity and the levels are low especially where
there is adequate ventilation. Promoting the recent study was likely in part a pre-emptive justification
for natural gas bans, an anchoring data point that can be cited by those advocating for bans.
References:
Innovating
for a Cleaner World. Adam Kay. American Gas Association. April 20. 2023. Innovating for a
Cleaner World - American Gas Association (aga.org)
New
York to Ban Natural Gas, Including Stoves, in New Buildings. Liam Stack. New York Times. April 28,
2023. Gas
Stoves To Be Banned in New NY Buildings - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
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