With power demand rising for the first time in a few decades, there is a clear need to prevent power grids from losing reliability, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Demands from clean energy advocates are exacerbating the issue. I know that during this unprecedented extended interval of very cold weather, I am grateful that the power has remained on and able to keep warm enough. An article by Everett Sloane in Morning Overview notes that retiring fossil fuel plants too soon could result in reliability events that could lead to rolling blackouts. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who has delayed some of these planned retirements, no doubt agrees.
“Regulators are effectively telling policymakers that
the physics of the system are changing faster than the infrastructure, and that
without a course correction, reliability risks will spread from a handful of
stressed regions to much of the continent.”
The simple math of it is that
demand is up and firm capacity, or dependable power generation, is down. Data
centers, industrial loads, and electrified technologies are expected to make
and keep peak demand very high.
NERC’s Long Term Reliability
Assessment (LTRA) calculates that 21 GW of fossil fuel generation capacity will
be lost over the next decade. Since that is in capacity and plants scheduled
for retirement are often already running at low utilization rates (capacity
factors), that is not as bad as it seems. However, it does represent a
significant loss of firm capacity.
“The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, or
NRECA, has issued a call for swift action to address what it describes as a
worsening grid reliability outlook, warning that projected energy resource and
transmission growth will not keep up with demand in parts of the Midwest, Mid
Atlantic, and Northwest. In its statement, NRECA warns that these regions could
face heightened risk of shortfalls if dispatchable plants close before new
capacity and transmission lines are in place, a concern that dovetails with
NERC’s broader warning that much of the grid is drifting into a more fragile
state.”
It should perhaps be pointed
out that the impressive levels of fossil fuel, mainly coal and old inefficient
gas plants, retirements of the past were easier to accommodate since power
demand had been steady. That is no longer the case.
The Morning Overview article notes that Winter Storm Fern will be a major stress test, and the data that arises from it should help with evaluating reliability concerns. As can be seen below, the first few days of this storm and especially the extended cold spell resulted in ISO New England turning, as they have now for years, to fuel oil, as can be seen in the graph below from the EIA. Oil made up the majority of power in the region. This fuel oil is much more expensive than natural gas, puts out far more air pollutants than natural gas, and also emits more CO2 than natural gas. Years or decades of burning oil every time a cold snap hits is not the most responsible way to address such cold snaps, which are guaranteed to happen. Building natural gas pipelines to nearby inexpensive natural gas sources makes much more sense, but is nonetheless unlikely to happen on a scale big enough to make a difference.
One thing is for certain. We
need enough dispatchable generation to cover such events effectively.
“Industry groups are pushing for a slower pace of
retirements, while clean energy advocates argue that the answer lies in
accelerating investment in transmission, storage, and flexible demand rather
than extending the life of aging coal units. NERC’s data, including the
projected 21 gigawatt decline in fossil capacity and the 24 percent rise in
peak demand, suggest that both sides are grappling with the same constraint:
time. To avoid the scenario where huge chunks of the grid become vulnerable,
policymakers will need to align permitting, market design, and reliability
standards so that new resources are in place before old ones exit, rather than
after the fact.”
According to Utility Dive’s
Robert Walton, NERC’s assessment has most of the demand increase coming from
data centers. However, summer demand is also expected to rise considerably,
although winter demand is expected to rise a little more than that.
“Summer peak demand across the bulk system is forecast
to grow by 224 GW over the next 10 years, a more than 69% increase over the
2024 LTRA forecast and a 24% increase from 2025 peak demand.”
“Winter demand growth is even higher, with 246 GW of
growth forecast over the next decade.”
MISO, PJM, ERCOT, and the
Pacific Northwest are expected to lead demand growth. John
Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessments and performance analysis,
noted that the future has never been more uncertain. Another NERC official
noted that delays in connecting new resources and unanticipated generator
retirements resulted in bulk system capacity being less than projected for the
past two years in a row. They also note that solar and battery additions can be
effective for addressing summer demand but not winter demand.
The Electric Power Supply
Association (EPSA) noted that both new resources and plant retirement delays
will be needed to ensure reliability.
“Reliability is best served by competitive electricity
markets that send clear, durable development signals — not by policy
interventions that create misalignment between supply and demand,” EPSA
President and CEO Todd Snitchler said in a statement. “In order to address the
warnings NERC’s LTRA sets out, it will require getting market signals right
while addressing permitting and siting delays, supply chain bottlenecks, and
other barriers to development.”
References:
Regulator
warns huge chunks of grid could fail as fossil fuels vanish. Everett Sloane.
Morning Overview. January 31, 2026. Regulator
warns huge chunks of grid could fail as fossil fuels vanish
NERC
forecasts peak demand to rise 24% on new data center loads. Robert Walton.
Utility Dive. January 30, 2026. NERC
forecasts peak demand to rise 24% on new data center loads | Utility Dive
